Temporary Relief to Commodities Supply: Black Sea Grain Deal


Temporary Relief to Commodities Supply: Black Sea Grain Deal

The Black Sea grain deal extension did not prevent wheat prices from experiencing a decline, as uncertainty surrounding the deal’s future continues to loom. Therefore, on a generally positive day across markets, the risk-on sentiment fueled optimism. It seems that the US would reach a resolution on the US debt ceiling. This positive outlook drove ICE Brent to close more than 2.7% higher, demonstrating the ongoing influence of external factors on the oil market, which surpasses the impact of underlying fundamentals.

Bearish EIA Inventory Report

Although market sentiment remained positive, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report painted a largely bearish picture. Commercial crude oil inventories in the US saw a significant increase of 5.04 million barrels over the week, surpassing both the 3.69 million barrel build reported by the API and market expectations.

The past week witnessed the highest accumulation of crude oil since mid-February. Additionally, the report indicated modest changes in refined product stocks, as gasoline inventories, decreased by 1.38 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 80 thousand barrels.

Furthermore, there was a decline in demand by 606 thousand barrels per day across gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel. Despite this, the 4-week average for suggested gasoline and jet fuel demand remains higher than seasonal norms. In contrast, the 4-week average for suggested distillates demand has dropped below the 5-year average for this period.

The European gas market continues to face pressure as prompt TTF prices approach EUR30/MWh. Growing confidence in a comfortable balance contributes to the downward trend. Currently, EU gas storage levels stand at over 64% capacity, well above last year’s 41% and the 5-year average of 46%.

The decline in front-end TTF prices also impacts winter prices for 2023/24, which had previously shown resilience in light of concerns about the balance during that period. However, recent changes in the forward curve indicate that the market is becoming less apprehensive about the next heating season.

Extension of the Black Sea Grain Deal Consequences

To address supply concerns, the Black Sea grain deal received an extension for an additional two months. While this extension offers some respite, it does not eliminate uncertainty regarding the future of the agreement. Initially, the deal was going to run for 120-day periods. Moreover, the short extension leaves questions unanswered. Additionally, flows of grains have been significantly hampered due to inspection-related issues, as highlighted by Ukraine. Despite the extension, CBOT wheat prices settled 3.4% lower, reflecting lingering market uncertainty.

The extension of the Black Sea grain deal provides a temporary reprieve for supply concerns in the market. However, the decline in wheat prices and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the deal’s future underscore the challenges and complexities faced by the agricultural sector.

The market will closely monitor developments in the coming months. It is necessary to gain clarity on the long-term prospects of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Besides, its impact on global grain supplies will play a huge role in the future of commodities.

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